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Monday, February 16, 2015

Where did $25 Trillion Go?

              Where is that $25 Trillion?

The private wealth of the nation increased by $25 trillion since 2008. Did you get some of it?

OK, it was only $24.8 trillion. Where did it go? See the Federal Reserve report here, page 2.
(How this relates to the Ryan-Republican budget plan follows below this discussion of $25 trillion.) 

How much is $24.8 trillion created over a six year period? It is  $77,500 per citizen or $200,000 per household of new or additional wealth. (Divide $24.8 trillion by 320 million citizens). That's how much more wealth each American has since 2008. Every family of four will have $315,000 more savings since 2008 to add to their previous savings. Now the average family has almost $700,000 in total assets, not bad is it? It is a gain in national wealth of over 44% since 2008 while most families were struggling with declining home values, unemployment, loss of wages, and the worst economic collapse in 75 years. The per capita GDP between 2006 and 2012 increased by all of $3, from $48,905 to $48,908 (see this site to check). The national income, a composite of everyone's income, declined in 2008 for only the second time since 1933. But wealth began to skyrocket -- check the Federal Reserve report cited above. 

Now the average wealth per human being in the U.S. is $254,000, and each household has $676,000 in savings, on average. But, in actual fact, only about 10% are average or above. Most of the $25 trillion went to just 5% of the households. 

The lower-saving 50% -- half of America -- own just 1.1% of all savings (see here) and their average savings is below $14,000, not the average for all of $676,000. Inequality is the structural problem of our nation's economy, and our society. We must ask, does this affect the life opportunities of everyone, including the reader? Are we all poorer as a result of such extreme inequality? Is there an immense and immoral human suffering because many have NO access and many have little access to the immense resources that the nation possesses? Are we ignorant, heedless, or uncaring that we allow this distribution of resources to remain so one-sided. 

I have difficulty explaining the economy. My friends and those I share my concerns with do not get it. The economy's main problem is that the immense "surplus" has not been shared adequately; the poor receive too little for their contributions, and the very wealthy seemingly hog most of the surplus. The result is a horrible distribution of total wealth that is beyond moral justification. Yet the most vociferous among us are silent, as though they must ignore this stupendous inequality. 

Together the economy is a collective effort, but 40% of the workers only receive 4% of the annual income in wage income, check out  the Social Security Administration's report on wage income. The annual surplus, which we call savings, profit, net worth, more-than-we-need-to-use-this-year, mostly goes to waste in excess savings of  the very wealthiest. In order to save $25 trillion over a six year period when total output was around $90 trillion, some 28% of the output had to be saved. How else can one explain a gain of $25 trillion? (25 is 28% of 90) And during this period most were experiencing crushing wage decline, job loss, and housing value collapse. The median family lost 39% of its life savings according to the Federal Reserve (see page 2 and page 17), a drop from $124,000 to $77,000. But the national increase in net worth resulted from a splurge of wealth pouring into capital markets inflating financial assets, creating a bubble condition.    

The new $24.8 trillion of savings increases each household's savings by  $200,000, on average. Or $101,000 per adult. How many readers actually experienced this gain? 

In contrast, about 47 million out of about 320 million Americans (about 1 in 7) cannot buy their food with money, instead they rely on the charity of food stamps (or its equivalent SNAP credits). They get $1.40 per meal, or $30.05 per week or $130 per month. What is a normal food expenditure per household? Let's look to the basic family budget analyzed by the EPI. It is $188.50 per month per person, or $43.50 per week per person, for a family living in Topeka, Kansas, the median expense location in the nation. The SNAP food budget is almost a third less than the basic frugal food budget. Instead of three meals a day, maybe food stamp recipients  eat just two meals daily? 

As a nation are we concerned about those one in seven American citizens, 47 million humans, who must rely on that $30 a week for food? How do we explain this failure in the wealthiest nation on the planet? Are these Americans stuck in a state of dependency on the government? Or is there a structural reason for their poverty, such as perhaps chronically low wages and inadequate job  opportunities? 

Lawrence Mishel published in the New York Times an op-ed that targets low wages as the primary source of the economy's troubles. 
Here's an excerpt:


WASHINGTON — WITH the early stages of the 2016 presidential campaign underway and millions of Americans still hurting financially, both parties are looking for ways to address wage stagnation. That’s the good news. The bad news is that both parties are offering tax cuts as a solution. What has hurt workers’ paychecks is not what the government takes out, but what their employers no longer put in — a dynamic that tax cuts cannot eliminate.
Wage stagnation is a decades-long phenomenon. Between 1979 and 2014, while the gross domestic product grew 150 percent and productivity grew 75 percent, the inflation-adjusted hourly wage of the median worker rose just 5.6 percent — less than 0.2 percent a year. And since 2002, the bottom 80 percent of wage earners, including both male and female college graduates, have actually seen their wages stagnate or fall."

There is an solution, a way to reverse the trend. Briefly, you can go to Bernie Sanders' statement on the 12 proposals to turn the national economy in the correct direction. Or you can read on further in this blog, or review the blog list to the right here, particularly the EPI and its proposal of the Progressive Caucus budget. Sample idea: "
  • Make necessary public investments. The [P C] budget finances roughly $485 billion in job creation and public investment measures in calendar year 2014 alone and roughly $1.35 trillion over calendar years 2014–2016.3 This fiscal expansion is consistent with the amount of fiscal support needed to rapidly shrink the “output gap” and restore the economy to full health.

The economic solution lies in taxing the unused surplus that the wealthiest have coopted and waste in financial speculation and employ at a living wage in public jobs the capable but un-employed and under-employed and under-paid, which is about one in every four adult American workers -- one in four (I explain this 1 in 4 in the most recent posts. It is over 40 million workers.). Yes, we can be proud of our history, our  heritage, our patriots, etc., but surely we can do better. 

I could go on in detail about the means to spread prosperity, to spread the vast resources at hand, to spread the amazing $254,000 per citizen of personal savings or the near $700,000 per household savings, on average. Easily we all could have access to living wage  employment. The CBO shows that the average market income per household is $93,900 per year (see page 2, here), and that translates into $72,000 per worker (on average) including all the unemployed workers. Each worker, even the unemployed and the part-timers, contribute $72,000 to the total national income. Yet 40% of all workers earn less than $20,000 a year  and most of that 40% earn less than half that amount. The average wage income for the 40% (or 62 million workers) is just over $8,000 a year -- not $72,000. We could easily devise a way to share more equally these resources -- a true ownership society. (I explained this in a recent posting.) Figure it out, reader. We have plenty --- $81 trillions in savings, and over $12.7 trillion in annual income, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation, and $14 trillion according to the BEA.gov --- but millions are destitute and suffering, truly suffering. About 44% of citizens live in households where a $1,000 emergency expense is a disaster.  And 40% of the adults self-identify as "lower or lower middle class". Soon the majority will self-identify as poor.  
FT_14.01.24_middleClass_line_420

Most citizens are sleeping. We should be clamoring for real redistribution of resources. But the society is adrift, tragically unconcerned or unperplexed, often caught in a dog-eat-dog mentality, and cannot see its great potential.   

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Wikipedia's article on Income Inequality in the U.S. is an excellent and detailed reference that covers the full scope of the issue. It's an example of the power of "wiki". I highly recommend it.

I looked at the EPI article on international comparisons of "safety net" support for the poor, also an excellent reference. It concludes that the U.S. has a greater differential from low to middle to high incomes, and it also supports low income the least. I'm not convinced the report proves the last statement.

The U.S. Census finds that 48% of citizens are low-income or poor, from an article at Huffington Post.     
Pew Research finds that 69% of Americans believe that government should do more to reduce inequality. 

The Ryan-Republican Budget Plan
The Ryan budget, which is supported by all Republicans, would reduce by half the taxes on the wealthiest who earn more than $400,000 a year, and raise taxes by $788 on households earning $40,000 (see here, page 2 and 5). Tax increases would be served to three out of four Americans. Halving the tax rate on the wealthiest is hare-brained, to say the least, given that research shows that in the 28 years, 1979 to 2007,  the top one percent has increased its income by 200% (a tripling) while the average weekly earnings of the lower 80% of earners has decreased by 2%(see here, Federal Reserve chart and convert for inflation, using this site).The per capita GDP expanded by 72% in this 28 year period, see here. An excerpt from the cited report:

"The average inflation-adjusted income of the bottom 99 percent of taxpayers grew by 18.9 percent between 1979 and 2007. Over the same period, the average income of the top 1 percent of taxpayers grew by 200.5 percent. This lopsided income growth means that the top 1 percent of taxpayers captured 53.9 percent of all income growth over the period."

An updated report shows that between 1979 and 2012 households in the lower 99% had 2.6% income growth and the top 1% had 180.9% growth. Does this mean its time to cut the taxes of the 1%? 
According to Ryan and the Republicans, yes.

Ryan's budget would cut total tax revenues by 22% to 28%, and to compensate for the drop in revenue it would eliminate government programs serving the poor. About 69% of the cuts in program benefits eliminate serves to the poor elderly, the poor disabled, and poor children --- the politically defenseless. Read the report. The Tax Policy Institute predicts that since no new revenues are specified the national debt would climb from around 60% of GDP to 175% by year 2050. Ryan's budget would totally eliminate Medicaid, it would convert Medicare to a poorly funded voucher system, and it would privatize Social Security as well as raise the retirement age to 69. 
I'll write a more detailed analysis someday. References for the above info can be found here, and here and here
Here's an income perspective from the Joint Committee on Taxation, 2014, see page 30:
The wealthiest 5.2% of tax filers, earning over $200,000 yearly, earn 32.3% of all income, pay 70.0% of all income taxes, and 46.7% of all combined income and Social Security taxes. Most of Ryan's tax cuts would benefit the top-earning 5 percent. The fact that they earn almost a third of all income, own 75% of all financial assets, and more than half of all wealth -- that's the status quo that is anti-democratic and harmful. The Ryan Budget is a pay-off to the rich (campaign contributors) who make most of the campaign contributions. Two-thirds of all contributions came in amounts greater than $200 from just 0.5% of all U.S. adults -- see here. The wealthiest exclude, effectively, any candidate who would raise their taxes and reward those who would cut them in half. The Ryan budget is also an insult to intelligence, as it does not balance out as the proponents claim. It is Robin Hood in Reverse. 


Monday, February 9, 2015

What Caused the Recession ?                 


                Debt caused the Recession. 

Excessive debt leads to insolvency. A growth of debt level must be accompanied by a growth of income. The US economy broke this simple rule, the result has been the Great Recession (GR). Economist Steve Keen won a respected prize among economists for predicting the GR. His explanation points exclusively to the growth of private debt. Since 1964 the “average weekly earnings” of non-supervisory workers, about 80% of the work force, has declined in inflation corrected terms by 4%, while the economy has become more productive per worker and per capita by a rate of 175%. With this background of income stagnation, what did debt do?  

It expanded, especially among financial corporations and households. In his book Debunking Economics, page 336, Keen states, referring to the US Flow of Funds report from the Federal Reserve, “Such an exponential rise in the debt ratio had to break, and when it did the global economy would be thrust into a downturn that would surely be more severe than those of the mid-1970s and early 1990s . . .(page 347) The debt-to-GDP ratio, which began the post-war period at barely 50 percent, increased by a factor of 6 in the subsequent five decades to reach a peak of 298 percent of GDP in early 2009.” 

He was drawing on Table D.3 from the Flow of Funds report. Looking at that report, the ten year section,1998 to 2008, these are the figures of debt growth.
Total domestic debt in ten years from 1998 to 2008 grew from $23 trillion to over $53 trillion. It increased by 76%, adjusting for inflation, while “disposable personal income” per capita increased by 21%. The key sources of debt are Government, Consumer, Non-Financial Corporate, and Financial Corporate.
The Financial Corporate sector debt increased 100% adjusted for inflation, and it's portion of total debt increased from 27% to 32% of all domestic debt (it was minuscule before 1970 as a % of GDP).
Consumer debt increased by 78% inflation adjusted, its share of total debt increased by 1%, from 25% to 26%.
Non-financial business debt increased by 65% per inflation adjustment, dropping its share from 23% to 21%.
Government debt (federal, state and local) increased debt by 53%, falling from 21% to 17% of total debt. Quite often government debt is painted as the debt villain, but this is pure ignorance in the service of politics. Put a white hat on government debt; put a dark thief's mask on financial system debt.

Between 1980 and 2008, 28 years, the economy's per capita “disposable personal income”, grew by 79%. (from BEA.gov)
   Total domestic debt increased by 230%, from $10.6 trillion to $34.9 trillion.
   So debt growth nearly tripled the rate of economic growth (79 times 3 = 237.).
   Financial Corporate debt grew from 20.7% to 120.0% of GDP (in 2015 it’s at 85%)
   Household debt grew from 50.2% to 96.6% of GDP
   Non-financial business debt grew from 52.9% to 80.0% of GDP
   Government (federal and state) debt grew from 38.7% to 64.7% of GDP
(I chose 2008 as the end year because financial corporate debt peaked in that year.)
I used BEA figures for GDP and Flow of Funds figures for debt components.

Conclusion: The economy grew well, increased output by almost 80% per human being, but the debt burden took off, all sectors piled on more debt relative to the size of the economy. In 1980 total domestic debt was 1.7 times greater than the annual GDP, in 2008 it was 3.7 times greater.
Keen states it was 3.98 times greater (see above). The financial system froze solid. Secretary of Treasury Paulson said it was encumbered with “negative frozen assets.” That’s a euphemism for valuable stuff wildly over-priced which no one will buy, trade or make loans on. 

Debt stimulates the economy, to a point. Excessive debt breaks it down catastrophically. The role of debt in a modern economy is a crucial factor which modern economics has failed to assess. The book The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What To Do About It, by Admati and Hellwig, tries to lay out some reforms so that the economy will not nose-dive again. The Dodd-Frank bill needs strong support, not the systematic dismantling we witness from the Republican Congress. 

My web page, Economics Without Greed  


Several recent books agree about the threat of over-lending. 

From MIT Press, Systemic Risk, Crises, and Macroprudential Regulation 
—- “This must-read book carefully defines systemic risk, considers all its dimensions, identifies the greatest sources of systemic risk (lending booms), and suggests a simple policy approach that avoids the pitfalls that are common in less thoughtful analyses of macroprudential regulation,” states one of the endorsements.

Between the Devil and Debt, by Adair Turner, the former chairman of England’s Financial Services Authority —-  
“Between Debt and the Devil challenges the belief that we need credit growth to fuel economic growth, and that rising debt is okay as long as inflation remains low. In fact, most credit is not needed for economic growth . . .”

Claudio Borio is interviewed at INET, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, explaining the  importance of macro prudential policy. “According to Dr. Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements, one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?”   
According to Borio, it denotes a systemic or system-wide orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks and their link to the macroeconomy.
http://ineteconomics.org/ideas-papers/interviews-talks/credit-booms-credit-busts


The movie “The Flaw” also shows the threat of growing aggregate debt in a chart. By 2007 it had reached 360% of GDP, up from 120% in 1960. 




       Are We Still In Recession in 2015?
And the employment rate among age 25 to 54 years old has 
recovered by half, so we are half way to recovery --- after 5 and a half years! 
(See here, the February 6, 2015, articles by Elise Gould, with relevant graphs.)
The unemployment rate would be 9.0% she says, if the dropped-out workers
were counted.
9.0% unemployment IS recession.
Not since 1986 has this particular age group showed such low employment.
This age group is not affected by the baby boomer retirement event; their low 
employment rate is solely an effect of the recession. And a perspective on the devastation of long term  unemployment can be found at the CEPR site.  

From 1996 to 2008 outstanding financial debt increased by 162%
and the economy's growth per capita grew by 24%
Creating debt at a rate almost 7 times faster than real growth is disastrous. 
When the median household savings falls by nearly 40%, when 15  million or 11% of the workforce lose their jobs in a two year period, and when the recipients of food stamps increases from 17 million in 2000 to 47 million in 2013, that is a disaster
(see graph here)
Excessive private, not public, debt created the fatal flaw leading to the great recession.
I calculated from the Federal Reserve's Flow of Fund report, Table D3, and then adjusted for inflation. You can also note that government debt grew slower than all other sectors' debt. This Federal Reserve Graph shows the growth of the financial system outstanding debt, numbers unadjusted for inflation. And this one shows the growth of household debt.
Here's another comparing financial debt with non-financial corporate debt.
I also used the Measuring Worth web page where they calculate GDP per capita growth between 1996 and 2008.

Here's a graph of total private debt as a percentage of GDP. We are still around double the historical average. Between 1946 and 1976 the economy grew at a rate of 

Chart- US Private Debt as a Percent of GDP

Here's a video about the drag of private global debt from the Guardian newspaper. 

The U.S. economy grew at half its normal rate between 2000 and 2010. From Wikipedia and BEA.gov:  
"US real GDP grew by an average of 1.7% from 2000 to the first half of 2014, a rate around half the historical average up to 2000.[84]"  There's a chart tucked away in Bailout Nation by Barry Ritholtz showing that GDP growth during the pre-crash 2000s was generated by home loan mortgage borrowing, called 2nd mortgages. 
Christian Weller provides a monthly snapshot of the economy at the Center for American Progress. 
This comes from the January report: "Household debt equaled 102.5 percent of after-tax income in September 2014, down from a peak of 129.7 percent in December 2007." And this graph showing our present recovery vs. other recoveries:


EconSnapshot-Jan15fig1 

The EPI also presents a similar graph (see here) except you can see the performance of the 2007 
recovery is about a third, not a half, of all previous recoveries:
Chart: Real GDP growth, comparison of recessions


Home Mortgage Crisis Still Unfolding

Dan Alpert at Economonitor, March 6, 2015, writes about the wrongly perceived recovery in housing.
It's an important article showing the impending deflationary pressures on the economy.
One must link to his Westwood Capital web page to see the entire presentation. The graph 
on page 12 tells a powerful story of deflation, especially combined with the thesis of his 
analysis.  

Here's an article about the failure of the Obama Administration effort to save homeowners (from a recent American Prospect issue). This is an example paragraph from the article:

                 "The most direct and effective policy solution to stop foreclosures is to allow bankruptcy judges to modify the terms of primary-residence mortgages, just as they can modify other debt contracts. This is known in the trade as “cramdown,” because the judge has the ability to force down the value of the debt. The logic of bankruptcy law reduces debts that cannot be repaid in order to serve a broader economic interest, in this case enabling an underwater homeowner to keep the house. Liberal lawmakers believed the threat of cramdown would force lenders to the table, giving homeowners real opportunities for debt relief. Wall Street banks were so certain they would have to accept cramdown as a condition for the bailouts that they held meetings and conference calls to prepare for it."

Housing Crisis Myths
Here are the Ten Myths from Jennifer Taub's book Other People's Houses from the last chapter :

1. There has been no official bipartisan consensus on the causes of the financial crisis.
                               Carl Levin (D) and Tom Coburn) investigated and agreed on the causes, see here. 

2. The financial crisis was an accident without human causes.
                        Steve Keen explains in his book Debunking Economics that he received 
                        the (Paul) Revere award for his prescient forecast of the economic freefall.
                       There were 94 other economists in the running for the award, and 5,000 who voted 
                       in the award. Read the article.

3. The financial crisis was brought about because the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 forced banks to lend to people with low incomes who could not afford to pay back their mortgages. 
                       This is the conclusion of most Republicans, and it is fantasy.

4. The giant government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, caused the financial crisis because he government pushed them to guarantee mortgage loans to people with low incomes as part of their public housing mission.
                     Fannie and Freddie were private enterprises selling their stock shares on the NYSE. 
                     The FCIC concluded they were acting out of self-interest, not government pressure

5. Mistakes were made, but there was not widespread fraud and abuse throughout the financial system.
                     Jennifer Taub's book and others will convince you of fraud.

6. The financial crisis was caused by too much government regulation.
                     Most people realize that the system was poorly regulated. 

7. Nobody saw it coming.
                      See note #2 about the Revere Award.

8. The financial crisis was unavoidable. And financial crises of this magnitude are inevitable.
                       The Federal Reserve is charged with oversight sufficient to quell over-speculation.

9. The Dodd-Frank Act has ended "too big to fail". 
                      The six largest banks are larger than before their self-destruction.

10. The bankers are the victims of greedy homeowners who borrowed money and did not pay it back. 
                              When debt increases 7 times faster than growth over a 12 year period, 1996 to 2008; when home price jump by 70% nationally over a four  year period, 2002 to 2006, banks are not ignorant observers, they are perpetrators. They immediately sold most of their loans as 
securitized  assets. 

Taub's book is masterful, I nominate her for the Supreme Court. It is also very complicated and detailed. The last page of her book quotes Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan testifying to the FCIC, 
"Over the course of this crisis, we as an industry caused a lot of damage. Never has it been clearer how mistakes made by financial companies can affect Main Street, and we need to learn the lessons of the past few years." 
Excessive private debt is a well-known cause of speculative collapse, it is 
surprising that so many ignore this as the main cause. Economist Steve Keen has 
placed his analysis on it in his book Debunking Economics. From page six, ". . . the 
never ending crisis . . . was no 'Black Swan.' Its inevitability was obvious to anyone
who paid attention to the level of debt-financed speculation taking place, and considered what would happen to the economy when the debt-driven party came to an end.

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POVERTY RAGES
Paul Buchheit has been writing the nation's best journalism. He explains in this February 2015 article the endemic poverty in the wealthiest nation. He cites a study showing that "almost two-thirds of Americans didn't have savings available to cover a $500 repair bill or a $1,000 emergency room visit."
The average household income, pre-tax and pre-transfer, is $93,000 a year (see CBO report here). The average savings per household is around $650,000 (see Federal Reserve report, page 2, here) -- and almost 2 in 3 live in households that cannot pay a $1,000 emergency room visit. !!!
Should it surprise us that the suicide rate among age 40 to 64 group has increased by 40% since 2000?
Read the article here
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LOW WAGES
I made this comment on one of Elise Gould's articles about employment, cited above.
"The Social Security Administration report on wages for 2013 says that 40% of workers earn less than $20,000 a year. The National Jobs for All Coalition shows that 12% of all workers work full-time and year round for under $23,500 a year, the poverty level for a family of four. 

40% of Workers Earned Just 4% of all Income in 2013
The combined or collective income of all 61 million workers who earned less than $20,000 in 2013 is about 4% of the total national income. Again 40% of the workers earn only 4% of all the income our economy generated. 
It's not complicated to figure it out. Add the incomes at the SSA report to get the $504 billion in income going to the lowest earning 40%, then go to the BEA.gov / personal income interactive site to find total personal income for 2013, $14.167 trillion. Then divide the numbers for a percent of total. Even if we take the total income recorded by the Joint Committee on Taxation for 2014, $12.7 trillion, the percentage does not really change much (see here for the JCT, page 30). Or look at the EPI table 2.4, see here, and find that wage income amounts to 54% of total income. 
Something should go off in your mind when you read this. 



Friday, January 23, 2015

The Best Radio Show

     Richard Wolff's Economic Update

I just finished an hour's listening to Economic Update, January 23, 2015. 

It was the best show I've ever heard (click here - Audio/Jan. 23, or click here, KPFA radio which carries Wolff's program), especially the final half when Wolff's wife, psychologist Dr. Harriet Fraad, describes the dangerous plight of our nation's youngsters. I seldom describe the human side of bad economics; this show is refreshing and will enlighten you. One in six youngsters, below 18 year's old, suffers food insecurity and hunger perhaps daily. Half of the children attending public schools now qualify for free lunch, meaning their family has less than $43,000 income. (If you wish, you can check: the  Basic Needs Calculator, the Basic Family Budget Calculator at EPI - Topeka, Kansas is the median expense city in the nation, the MIT calculator, and State of Working America, and here, if you wonder if $43,000 is too high an income to qualify for food assistance.) In 1995, 20 years back, only 33% qualified. Our system of after-school care and infant childcare is lamentable and will destroy our nation ultimately. Other nations provide these services far better. Many, many children arrive at school hungry and need breakfast, and teachers often provide morning snacks out of their own savings. I taught in public schools in east Oakland for over 10 years, I testify that this is a reasonable assertion. Run-away and throw-away children are on the increase since the beginning of the recession. This radio show is a disturbing program, but it highlights the personal effects of an economy and society dangerously out of touch. Too often ordinary people claim that others who have money problems have made bad decisions and now survive  parasitically on the rest of society. Good people seem to make this erroneous assertion regularly, and they should learn better by listening to this radio show. 
I also read Robert Kuttner's article 


about the error of believing in the myth of the free market and that government doesn't work, but  that "Freedom Works" as my Tea Party Congressman states on his campaign billboards. "Don't Vote for Anarchy, Anarchy Doesn't Work" is my response. Kuttner's article, "The Libertarian Delusion", is a convincing rebuttal. It will eventually be posted by American Prospect Magazine.  (And I'll provide a hyper-link. Here's his home at A.P.)

On January 26, 2015, Economic Policy Institute published a report  
that  details lopsided income growth between 1979 and 2012, 33 years, the net result is "Change in Income" for top 1% = 180.9%, for the bottom 99% = 2.6%, Top 1% share of all income growth, 88.5% over 33 years. At Measuring Worth we see in those 33 years GDP per capita increased by 70.3%, from $28,725 to $48,908. Again, 88.5% of that growth went to the top 1%. The income difference between the 1% and the average 99% is 30 times. The wealth difference? I'd like to know, it must be around 1 to 1,000. The lower-saving 50% owns but 1.1% of all wealth (see here). Of the $25 trillion in new wealth since 2008, that is $78,000 per human nationwide of additional savings, most of it went to the top 1% (see here, page 2). 

Complementary to the above is my posting below that shows that freedom is not working for many Americans. 

Sunday, January 11, 2015

America's Inequality


  The Profile of Inequality of Income and Wealth

I read an article by Lawrence Mishel at the American Prospect and left this comment. My comment:

Income Shares --- Are they Healthy? "The lower-earning 45% of U.S. households all with incomes below $40,000 a year, earns in market income about 11.5% of all income, while the top-earning 20%, all with incomes above $100,000, earn 60.0% of all income. This comes out of the Congressional Joint Commission on Taxation (see here, page 30). When I convert this to average income per household, it means that the lower 45% have one dollar of income while the higher 20% have $11. This 1 to 11 ratio between nearly half and the better earning 20% is an unhealthy balance. Living standards for half are strained. And then I looked at the CBO report on income distribution for 2011 (see page 2) and see the same ratio. The market income disparity is relieved by government transfers and taxation, but the final disparity is glaring, 1 to 6 instead of       1 to 11

International Comparisons We are becoming like Mexico, which has the greatest inequality between the 20th and 80th quintiles, and our social ambience will become like Mexico’s as we continue down this line. The OECD places the U.S. income inequality at 4th worse out of 34 advanced nations (see page 45, "inter quintile share ratio 80/20). Mexico's 20th to 80th quintile average income ratio is 13.0 while the U.S. has 7.7. Lawrence Mishel says (at article cited above) that for 70% of the workers wages have been flat for almost 40 years, while the economy’s growth per human has more than doubled since 1964, by a factor of 2.6 times, a percentage of 160%. It's a stunning loss of income for the vast majority of Americans. "Raising America's Pay" is the call of the EPI, which also presents a wage calculator where one can discover what one's income would be if wages and productivity had matched. Not to be missed is the article "Wage Stagnation in Nine Charts" from the EPI. 

Wealth Disparity Wealth disparity is far worse. Professor Saez released a report showing that one in 1,000 has as much savings as 900 in a 1,000, both have about 23% of all wealth. (And read more here) Bernie Sanders seems to be the only politician speaking out about cures."    More to come. But of course you could read the 2014 posts on inequality and capture most of what I have to say. 

Figure 9: Productivity and Wages, 1970-2013
Weekly Wages Today Are Lower than 
1964 Wages for 80% of Workers Even Though the Economy Is Two and a Half Times More Productive Per Worker  
Dollars and Sense magazine published this graph, but the article is not on the web. (They also published 11 graphs at the end of 2014 well worth our time to contemplate, here.)  Total compensation rose by 40% because insurance companies charged employers more for medical insurance. Employees never experienced a raise. Average hourly wages have gone up by 8% since 1964 while average weekly wages have declined by 4%, see the graphs below from the Federal Reserve. Wage income as a share of national income has declined from 51% to 42%, an amount equal to today's $1.26 trillion; and if the former 51% share went to wages then 80% of households would have $10,000 plus income, and poverty would not exist (because I'm distributing the $1.26 trillion equally to all households in the lower-earning 80%).  
The Federal Reserve graphs show that average weekly wage earnings for nonsupervisory employees since 1964 have decreased by 4%. Here are a few Fed graphs showing how poorly the economy has served employees --- here, here, here, and here. Use the BLS inflation calculator, here, and you can learn that incomes have stayed flat. Lawrence Mishel says, in the article cited above, that for 70% of workers, all employees, wages have not budged since 1970. 
The EPI details lopsided income growth since 1979, the net result is "Change in Income" for top 1% = 180.9%, for the bottom 99% =  2.6%, Top 1% share of all income growth, 88.5% over 33 years. At Measuring Worth we see in those 33 years GDP per capita increased by 70.3%, from $28,725 to $48,908. Again, 88.5% of that growth went to the top 1%. The difference between the 1% and the average 99% is 30 times. 

One in Four Workers Are Out-of-Luck
_____________________________________One in four U.S. adults who would like to work are either not working, working only part-time and want full-time, or are working for poverty wages full-time and year-round. One in four is 25% or about 40 million adults. Now I'll try to prove it: 
Look at National Jobs for All Coalition's monthly employment report, njfac.org. They state that 21.9 million are 1) not at work or 2) not working full-time but want full-time. Then they state that 18.5 million workers are 3) working full-time, year-round at less than poverty wages which they put at less than $23,850. This comes out to less than $11.50 an hour. A total of 40.4 million out of a workforce of 156 million (see here) is more than 1 out of 4. 
I could argue that this number is greater, but I won't. Who would read it? It was larger a year ago, about 28% of the labor force. 
So, things are improving. 
I read the December 2014 report of the Council of Economic Advisers, and I am upbeat, at last. Things are improving. But, one in four either working poor or not working? And 45% earning just 11.5% of all income while the top 20% earn 60.0%? A ratio of 1 to 11. And the top 1 in a 1,000 owning more than the lower 900 in 1,000?  We have quite a long, long road before we reach upbeat. 

The System Is Not Working _______________________________________When I think 1 in 4 workers are either not working, not working enough, or being paid a sub-poverty wage, I think this system is not working. Today I saw an old campaign poster for the local Tea Party winner, and it said "Freedom Works". For whom? 
The nation needs to get voters to vote. And to get money out of political campaigns. And to create public employment to drive up wages, while reforming laws pertaining to labor unions. I've gone over this in previous reports. 
In a more real way, we are witnessing a collective movement of  hearts. A very slow awakening of the importance of the economy, a shift of the old story of freedom to one of cooperation. Caring will at last form the basis of voting. Since there is so much wealth and income --- it is absurd to think that for long we can hold the natural instincts down with fear, paranoia, class animosity, and demagoguery. We are reasonable and understanding. "We'll come to understand that we like each other more than we thought we did," was my answer to "How will it ever change?" We'll come to care more and apply our strengths to making equal opportunity and more-or-less equal outcomes happen. I can't say it clear enough.  Too many of my friends insensitively and arrogantly predict calamity. I disagree, but the future will be difficult, both good and bad will come forth. The good will be much more powerful. But that matters little, each person will have to demonstrate his convictions and act. 
Here's a nice read about inequality in movement, from Too Much, again. Two British epidemiologists discuss the powerful insights about inequality, disease and health outcomes, and the reaction to their story, "Pickett: Actually, I don’t think people find what we’re talking about all that difficult at all. I think they find that what we’re saying, about the impact of inequality, is intuitively making sense of their own experiences. So the most common reaction we see among audiences when we’re talking is nodding." 
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Maryland Congressman with a Bold Plan A news report Congressman Chris Van Hollen's plan for a $2,000 tax credit for middle class couple's taxes (an income increase of $1.2 trillion over ten years to about 50% of households), a Financial Transaction Tax, and for a  fine on corporations that boost only CEO pay while employee pay falls. See KPFA's Pacifica Evening News, January 14, 2015. The video of Van Hollen at the CAP is here, 58 minutes. I watched the entire 58 minutes, I feel I should watch it again. 

The nation's surplus is going to waste. 
$25 trillion of new savings has been created in the past 6 years, since 2008 (see Federal Reserve report, page 2). An increase of $78,000 per human, or a 30% increase per capita. It's a stunning increase. Haven't you noticed how much better things are, how much new construction is happening, how strained we are to meet the influx of all the new demand? 
No? Why not? Because all that surplus is going to waste, that's why. Van Hollen's plan, and others like it would put the surplus to productive use. Since 2008 the economic output, GDP, has been $90 trillion, and savings has increased by $25 trillion, and that's an amazing amount of savings. Too bad it goes to absolute waste. 

The CPEG program purports to raise close to $1,000 billion a year while Van Hollen's plan only $120 billion. CPEG recommends: "c) As we exploit our (greatest remaining economic “asset” - rentierism) we need to shrink it and eventually eliminate it. A straightforward way to do both (exploit and gradually eliminate) is to impose a financial transaction tax on all financial trading in the U.S. and with European collaboration (the EU parliament has already recommended this) worldwide.11 It is indicative of the degree of economic distortion of our rentier economy, that this one tax has the potential to raise up to $ 1 T a year and fund up to 25 M living wage jobs over 5 years (Barclay, 2005) (CPEG, 2009,2011). This should be immensely politically popular, would directly repress rentier activity, and if used for a jobs program, directly redevelop the productive side of our economy."

The Van Hollen video is a convincing public display by a knowledgable Congress Representative, and it should have a durable impact as he seeks to publicize it. Watch it. 
Also, here's a short piece from the Brookings Institute on the CBO report that has caught my attention. To quote: "Between 1979 and 2011, CBO calculates, inflation-adjusted market income for the bottom 20 percent of households rose by 16 percent.  For the middle three quintiles of households (the 21st to the 80thpercentile, this income also rose by 16 percent.  For households between the 81st and 99thpercentile, it rose by 56 percent.  And for the top 1 percent of households, it rose by 174 percent." 
See the web page Measuring Worth and calculate as I did that the per capita growth of the nation increased by 70.2% between 1979 and 2011. Not 16%, 70%. Michel's article covers this too.  
The CBO report mentioned in the Brookings report will be the topic of a soon to be posted essay here.